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JPM, Barclays Expect Yen to Stay Soft Following Sanae Takaichi's Landslide Victory in Election
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's sweeping victory in the national election not only sent the Nikkei 225 index to a record high but also intensified volatility in the ye...
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JPM, Barclays Expect Yen to Stay Soft Following Sanae Takaichi's Landslide Victory in Election
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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's sweeping victory in the national election not only sent the Nikkei 225 index to a record high but also intensified volatility in the yen.

Junya Tanase, Head of Japan FX Strategy of JPMorgan, said the yen's initial reaction to the election result was relatively muted. In the short term, investors' attention will focus on Japan's stock and bond markets, as well as the yen's subsequent movement.

Given the negative correlation between the yen and Japanese stocks, the yen may face additional downside pressure as the Liberal Democratic Party's landslide win drives equities higher.

Meanwhile, the Japanese government has signaled its intention to push ahead with consumption tax cuts. If the Japanese government bond market reacts negatively, selling pressure on both government bonds and the yen could escalate. Overall, short-term risks appear slightly tilted toward a weaker yen.

Naohiko Baba, Chief Japan Economist at Barclays, pointed out that Takaichi's administration, buoyed by strong public support, may temporarily pile up pressure on the Bank of Japan to maintain its current monetary policy stance. However, such a move could easily trigger further yen depreciation.
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