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<Research>Citi: $70B-$100B Liquidity Expected to Be Drained if HKD Exchange Rate Hits Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking
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If USD/ HKD touches the 7.85 weak-side Convertibility Undertaking (CU) and the demand for foreign exchange still exists, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will sell USD to maintain the linked exchange rate, and reduce the liquidity of the HKD, Citi Research issued a research report saying. It is estimated that about $70 to $100 billion liquidity will be withdrawn, resulting in the short-term HKD interest rate to rise to between 2% and 3%, when USD/ HKD will be back to the level of about 7.82-7.83. Citi Research estimated that, if HIBOR stabilizes above 2.2%, the actual residential mortgage rate will reach 3.5%. If the fall in HKD interest rates continues, the burden of financing costs on Hong Kong real estate developers can be reduced, and it is expected that full-year profits can be increased by as much as 3%. The broker maintained its forecast of a 3% drop in Hong Kong property prices for the whole year. Considering that REITs and residential homebuilders are more likely to benefit from the recent gains, Citi Research expected Hong Kong's homebuilders to consolidate at their current levels based on their valuations and latest result forecasts, with Hongkong Land, LINK REIT (00823.HK) and SHK PPT (00016.HK) being its top picks. AAStocks Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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