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<Research>Citi Cuts NIO-SW's TP to HKD47.3 w/ Lower 2026-27 Sales Forecasts
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According to Citi's research report, NIO-SW (09866.HK) issued a positive profit alert yesterday, expecting its non-GAAP operating profit to range between RMB700 million to RMB1.2 billion, while its GAAP operating profit will hit between RMB200 million to RMB700 million, marking its first quarterly operating profit, which Citi attributed to sales growth in 4Q25, improved product mix, and ongoing cost reductions.

Based on NIO-SW's weak order growth in the first month of 2026 and the downward revision of sales forecasts for the electric vehicle industry, Citi has lowered the carmaker's 2026-27 sales forecasts by 10-13% to 400,000 and 471,000 units, respectively. Revenue forecasts have also been trimmed by 11% and 7%, and gross margins have been reduced by 0.1 ppt to 16.5% and 17.8%, respectively.

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Citi has kept a Buy rating on NIO-SW but reduced its target price from HKD53 to HKD47.3.
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